New Political Poll Reveals President Trump Losing One of Arizona's Most Conservative Congressional Districts

MACIAS PR - Political PR Consulting Firm

The New York political consulting firm MACIAS PR has released the first political poll for Arizona’s Eighth Congressional District, revealing 55 percent of all registered voters say they won’t vote for President Donald Trump in November.

The phone poll was conducted Feb. 28-March 3 and has a margin of error of plus or minus five percent. 

It’s a surprising discovery since Maricopa County gave Trump the largest number of votes of any county in the 2016 election. This poll is in line with national polls that show President Trump is losing support among suburban voters.

The Eighth Congressional District has historically been a more conservative-leaning area, covering parts of Sun City, Peoria, New River, Goodyear and Northwest Phoenix in Maricopa County. It includes Luke Air Force Base.

Gender and Party Breakdown of Political Poll for Arizona’s 8th Congressional District

Registered voters in Arizona’s Eighth Congressional District were asked if they planned on voting for President Trump in November and if Rep. Debbie Lesko’s unconditional support for Trump made them more or less likely to re-elect her.

Among all registered voters, 55 percent said they wouldn't vote for Trump, while 45 percent said they will. The poll found 27 percent of registered Republicans said they won’t vote for Trump in November, while 88 percent of registered Democrats said they would not vote for him. 

Of those who were registered with another party - defined as “other” - 54 percent of them said they wouldn’t vote for Trump in November. It showed similar results for the Congressional race: 54 percent of voters from the “other” party said they would not vote for the Republican incumbent, Lesko. 

Approximately 160,000 voters in District 8 are registered as Independents.

The poll also revealed a gender gap among party support for Trump. Of all Republicans who said they wouldn’t vote for Trump in November, 62 percent of them were men. Among all registered voters, 48 percent of men said they won’t vote to re-elect Trump, while 58 percent of all women said they wouldn’t vote for him.

The political director behind the poll, Mark Macias, says District 8 likely won’t be decided by Republicans, or even Democrats - but the “other” party that represents nearly a third of all registered voters in this District.

“The changing demographics in this suburban district suggest this seat will be won by the candidate who captures the growing number of independent voters registered with another party,” said Macias. “State and national GOP party leaders might think District 8 is solidly Republican, but the Northwest suburb has changed since 2016.”

Maricopa County was the fastest-growing county in the U.S. for the third year in a row, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. 

The poll also looked into the residential history of voters, asking how long they have lived in District 8. It found only 12 percent of voters are Valley natives, while 18 percent said they moved here within the last five years; 70 percent said they have lived in this District for more than five years.

Waning Support for Rep. Debbie Lesko Inside District 8

President Trump has been a vocal supporter of Rep. Debbie Lesko, naming her to his impeachment team and frequently tweeting support for her. The poll suggests voters are split on Lesko’s unconditional support for Trump. 

Voters were asked if Lesko’s unconditional support and loyalty for Trump made them more or less likely to re-elect her. Forty-nine percent said they were less likely to support Lesko based on her loyalty to the President, while 51 percent said they were more likely to re-elect her based on that support.

A breakdown of gender found 47 percent of all women are against Lesko’s continued support for Trump, while 53 percent of men are less likely to re-elect Lesko based on her support.

In the 2018 Special Election, only 8,681 voters separated Lesko from the Democratic nominee. 

Lesko’s Democratic challenger, Michael Muscato, is a rare Valley native, growing up and living in the same town in Peoria where he grew up. He says as a Christian and small business and gun owner, he understands the community and what voters want based on his life experiences in the Valley.

“Lesko is hoping Trump will push her over the finish line, but these poll results reinforce what I’m hearing every day from real voters in my district,” said Muscato, who was a top fundraiser among all Democratic challengers facing an incumbent member of the House Judiciary Committee in the most recent FEC fundraising report. “We don’t want a partisan, Trump fan club more interested in fame than getting the job done. We want our issues with immigration, education, healthcare, and wage inequality solved - not partisan finger-pointing. My platform is forged from this district and it represents everyone, not just one political party. My plans provide detailed solutions to our problems and they have support from both sides of the aisle and those who are sick of both sides' partisan stalemate.”

Media Contact:
Mark Macias
Email: mmm@maciaspr.com
Phone: 646-770-0541

Source: MACIAS PR

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Categories: Elections

Tags: arizona congressional district 8, arizona politics, Congressional campaigns arizona, debbie lesko, michael muscato, rep. debbie lesko opponent


About MACIAS PR

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MACIAS PR was named the 2019, 2018 and 2017 Strategic PR Firm of the Year by marketing peers. The NYC PR agency was founded by Mark Macias, a former Executive Producer with NBC and Senior Producer with CBS in New York.