Republican Main Street Partnership Unveils New Iowa and New Hampshire Polling Ahead of Presidential Debate

WASHINGTON, August 21, 2023 (Newswire.com) - The Republican Main Street Partnership (RMSP), in conjunction with nationally recognized research firm Echelon Insights, released new polling data two days ahead of the first GOP presidential debate. Conducted from August 15-17, 2023 the poll of 800 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters and 800 likely Iowa Republican Caucus-goers shows how Donald Trump still maintains a strong lead despite his indictments. The poll was conducted with a sample and methodology that is in accordance with the RNC's criteria for debate qualifying polls.

"Despite Donald Trump's position as the current frontrunner in both Iowa and New Hampshire, his path to the nomination is far from guaranteed. We're seeing growing support for alternative candidates like Chris Christie and Vivek Ramaswamy in these key battleground states. If the two-thirds of non-Trump GOP voters in early states can coalesce around one or two candidates, Trump will have a harder time than he anticipates," notes Sarah Chamberlain, RMSP President and CEO. "By refusing to debate, it looks like Donald Trump is expecting the nomination handed to him instead of earning it. It's clear that Republican voters are looking for an alternative candidate, and these findings show that a select few are exceeding expectations," added Chamberlain.

Some key findings among New Hampshire voters include:

• Donald Trump is the frontrunner, and yet he still only captured one-third of primary voters' support (34%). He performed most strongly among those who identify themselves as very conservative (51%) as well as mothers (46%).
• The candidates rounding out the top five include Chris Christie (14%), Vivek Ramaswamy (11%), Ron DeSantis (9%), and Tim Scott (7%).
• Mike Pence (3%), Nikki Haley (3%), Will Hurd (3%), Doug Burgum (2%), and Asa Hutchinson (1%) comprise the third-tier of candidates. No other candidate earned at least 1%.
• Top voter issues are political corruption (26%), cost of living (15%), jobs and the economy (11%) and immigration (11%). Political corruption is especially important among parents, with 35% of mothers and 28% of fathers naming it as a top concern.
• Seven-in-ten (71%) of likely NH Republican primary voters think fentanyl is an extremely or very concerning issue in their local community. 
• Respondents are initially averse to a federal approach to abortion restrictions, with 77% preferring the issue to be left to the states - but when specifically asked about a federal level policy limiting abortions around 17 weeks, 61% of respondents said that they would support such a policy.

Some key findings among Iowa Caucus voters include:

• Donald Trump is the frontrunner, and yet he still is only capturing one-third of likely GOP caucus-goer's support (33%). He performed most strongly among very conservatives (42%) and non-college educated respondents (36%). 
• The next tier of candidates includes Ron DeSantis (17%), Tim Scott (13%), and Vivek Ramaswamy (8%). DeSantis does equally as well as Trump (30%) among likely GOP caucus-goers below the age of 50. DeSantis is also a top contender among parents, polling at 24% - just a few points behind Trump, polling at 28% with this group.
• Chris Christie (4%), Mike Pence (3%). Nikki Haley (2%), Doug Burgum (2%), and Will Hurd (1%) round out the candidates, earning at least 1%. Other candidates do not meet the 1% threshold.
• Top voter issues are political corruption (28%), cost of living (15%), jobs and the economy (13%) and immigration (12%). 
• Nearly seven-in-ten (69%) likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers prefer the issue of abortion to be left to the states - but when specifically asked about a federal level policy limiting abortions around 17 weeks, 65% of respondents said they would support such a policy.

**New Hampshire topline information can be found here, and full crosstabs can be found here.

**Iowa topline information can be found here, and full crosstabs can be found here.

METHODOLOGY (NEW HAMPSHIRE): This survey was fielded from August 15 - 17, 2023 among a sample of N=800 likely 2024 Republican primary voters in New Hampshire. The sample was drawn from the L2 voter file. 400 respondents were contacted via text message and completed the survey online, and 400 were interviewed by live interviewers over the phone, on both landlines and cell phones. The sample was weighted to population benchmarks for likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire on gender, age, and congressional district. Calculated the way it would be for a random sample and adjusted to incorporate the effect of weighting, the margin of sampling error is ± 4.0 percentage points.

METHODOLOGY (IOWA): This survey was fielded from August 15 - 17, 2023 among a sample of N=800 likely 2024 Republican caucus-goers in Iowa. The sample was drawn from the L2 voter file. 400 respondents were contacted via text message and completed the survey online, and 400 were interviewed by live interviewers over the phone, on both landlines and cell phones. The sample was weighted to population benchmarks for likely Republican caucus voters in Iowa on gender, age, and congressional district. Calculated the way it would be for a random sample and adjusted to incorporate the effect of weighting, the margin of sampling error is ± 4.2 percentage points.

ABOUT RMSP: The Republican Main Street Partnership (RMSP) encompasses a broad alliance of conservative, governing Republicans, including more than 85 sitting members in Congress. Led by President and CEO Sarah Chamberlain, RMSP is dedicated to working to enact common sense legislation that gets things done for the American people. RMSP's members run and win in the most highly contested swing districts in the country.

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For more information or to set up an interview with Sarah, please contact Elizabeth Aucamp at elizabeth@javelindc.com or (704) 249-1430.

Source: Republican Main Street Partnership