Evans Chamberlain Asset Management - China to Replace US Soybean Imports
Evans Chamberlain Asset Management - China to source soybean imports from other countries as tariff war rages on, hurting US farmers.
TAIPEI CITY, Taiwan, September 5, 2018 (Newswire.com) - By next year, China is set to almost completely replace its quota of soybeans imported from the United States with Brazilian soybean imports. Evans Chamberlain Asset Management economists say that there is a chance China will run out of oilseed early next year.
The news of an alternate soybean supply for China is bad news for American farmers who are already beginning to feel the impact of the escalating trade dispute between the US and China.
China is the world’s biggest buyer of soybeans and purchased approximately 60 percent of soybeans exported from the United States in 2017. Evans Chamberlain Asset Management economists say that since China imposed a 25 percent import duty on US soybeans, China has been largely out of the market.
Evans Chamberlain Asset Management economists say that soybean imports from the United States will decline even more towards the end of this year and early next year to just 700,000 tonnes, a dramatic fall from the 27.85 million tonnes imported from the United States last year.
China’s imported soybean total will fall from 95.46 million last year to 84.67 million next year and that will include 71.06 million tonnes from Brazil and the remainder from Canada, Russia, Argentina and other countries.
Evans Chamberlain Asset Management economists say stocks of soybeans will likely fall to a record low before the end of the year which will cause the price of soybeans to rise. The negative impact on demand will likely be felt as early as the first quarter of next year.
Source: Evans Chamberlain Asset Management