Spry Strategies Conducts Nationwide Survey, Predicts Trump Victory!
Spry Strategies created two models: Traditional 2016 General Model has Biden leading by 1.8 points, Custom Model factoring in voter registration and Trump voters has Trump leading by 1.8 points
KNOXVILLE, Tenn., October 31, 2020 (Newswire.com) - The national poll conducted by Spry Strategies from October 20 through October 23 provides a granular look at the General Election battle between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. The random sampling of 380,000 likely general election voters who voted in at least 2 of 4 general elections considering 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2018. Additionally, the sample includes newly registered voters who registered to vote between 5.1.18 and 10.19.20 mode sample consists of 3000 landlines, IVR 400 cells and 100 panels. The sample includes a scientific distribution of voters residing in all 50 states.
The margin of error is this nationwide poll is +/- 3.1 percentage points with demographic weighting applied.
The survey turnout model is a combination of 2016 general election turnout, dominant Republican newly registered voter statistics, and early voting statistics. The traditional 2016 General Model has Biden leading by 1.8 points, and is available upon request.
Overview
This 12-question survey conducted in the height of media attention that spanned the window of time preceding, during and following the second presidential debate featured 3,500 completed responses from likely registered voters from each of the 50 states.
The head-to-head results from the ballot test (Q4) captured what Americans see - a very close national election. Donald Trump (R) was the choice of 47.78% of the 3,500 respondents with Joe Biden (D) selected by 46.34%. Of note, only 3.66% of respondents were undecided and just over 2% were voting for a "third party" alternative.
Looking at the sample's partisan divide, Republicans comprised 39.8%, Democrats 37.96% and Independents over 18% while self-identified ideology was more telling. Of the large national sample, a sum of 44.78% disclosed their either "very conservative" or "somewhat conservative" leanings with the moderate identifier leading at 28.87% and those viewing their leanings as somewhat liberal or liberal to total 26.35%.
The cohort of moderates combined with those with liberal leanings comprise the greatest group who show disapproval of Donald Trump and support Joe Biden. Of those surveyed on the incumbent President's approval, moderates comprised the largest group to have "somewhat disapproval" as well as showing strong disapproval at 53.4% and 36.8% respectively. In the Trump approval crosstabs (Q3), females are 60.9% of the respondents who somewhat disapprove and 58.6% of those who strongly disapprove.
Accounting for race, Biden prevailed in the ballot test with 57.5% of the African American respondents while Trump held 32.4% of the same population. Conversely, Trump led in the Hispanic voters with 48.2% with Biden at 43.2%. Interestingly, the Trump approval for African Americans was positive for 38% of respondents while Hispanics offered their approval at 52.1% of those surveyed. If Trump finishes anywhere near these percentages of support from African Americans and Hispanics, he will win the electoral college and the popular vote.
Prediction
4 more years of Donald J. Trump as President of the United States, with an expansion of the electoral college, and a loss to Joe Biden in the popular vote by a slimmer margin than the 2016 election against Hilary Clinton.
Full Executive Summary & Reports Available at spryresearch.com/reports
Source: Spry Strategies
