Shortage of Lithium-Ion Batteries: IDTechEx Gives Escape Routes

​Shortage of lithium-ion batteries is probable. Too few gigafactories. Too many burning batteries: factories shut to sort out their problems. The US-China trade war cuts off materials. Inadequate lithium or cobalt mining.  

Electric vehicle demand is probably being underestimated. Expect cost parity with conventional cars in 3-7 years when range demanded by most prospective buyers - 300 miles/ 480 km – is also met.  IDTechEx 2020-2030 projections of battery capacity for all 100 IDTechEx EV categories reveals pent-up demand if promised cell cost reduction is met - a staggering 3,900 GWh in 2030, over double the committed 2028 global production.

Every month a bigger commitment in gigafactories is announced but we should plan for shortage. Lithium-ion for grids has many alternatives - flow batteries to pumped water. Substitute here first. See IDTechEx report, “Batteries for Stationary Energy Storage 2019 – 2029”.

Turn the clock forward.

Speed up 48V mild-hybrid car launches: keeping legal under tightening emissions laws while using 5% of the battery in a pure electric car. Geely (Volvo etc) will partly use a supercapacitor for both 48V and full hybrids. Toyota even showed an Auris full hybrid works fine with a supercapacitor, no battery.  Economics of supercapacitor-powered large buses will improve despite shorter range meaning more charging. See IDTechEx reports, "Supercapacitors: Applications, Players, Markets 2020-2040” and “Energy Storage for Buses and Trucks 2019-2029”. Faster market entry of no-cobalt and/or no-lithium batteries can be considered but the safety and performance of solid-state batteries must progress to market. See IDTechEx reports, “Advanced Li-ion & Beyond Li-ion Batteries 2018-2028” and “Solid-State and Polymer Batteries 2019-2029”. Top up charging of buses and trucks by rail-in-road, coils-in-road, intermittent catenary, solar bodywork etc will certainly come centre stage because it means up to 80% less battery.

Turn the clock back

Come back HEVs with NiMH batteries like the Prius. Revert to LFP Li-ion without cobalt if that metal is the problem or buy more low-cobalt high-energy-density versions - Panasonic. There could be a halt to the progress of Li-ion replacing lead-acid in mobility-for-the-disabled, two-wheelers and forklifts but turning the clock back usually means the planet is the loser.  

IDTechEx guides your strategic business decisions through its Research, Consultancy and Event products, helping you profit from emerging technologies. For more information on IDTechEx Research and Consultancy contact research@IDTechEx.com or visit www.IDTechEx.com

To find out more about energy storage research available from IDTechEx visit www.idtechex.com/research/ES or to connect with others on this topic, IDTechEx Events is hosting Energy Storage Innovations – Disruptive technologies, materials and applications, November 20-21 2019, Santa Clara, USA www.EnergyStorageUSA.tech

Media Contact:

Jessica Abineri

Marketing Assistant

Source: IDTechEx


Categories: Energy, Alternative Energy

Tags: Batteries, Battery, Electric Vehicles, Energy Storage, Lithium Ion Batteries, Solid State Batteries, Stationary Energy Storage, Supercapacitors


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