Iran and US/Israel War Risks to Increase to 50% in 2012 - Web Briefing
On 12 January, Exclusive Analysis will host a webinar on the 2012 Iran and US/Israel War Risk Outlook.
Online, January 10, 2012 (Newswire.com) - INCREASED WAR RISKS
Exclusive Analysis assess that the probability of a unilateral Israeli strike will increase from unlikely (10% probability) to likely (50% plus) between about March and June 2012 onwards, giving time for the latest sanctions to take effect (and to be seen to have failed to produce a change in Iranian policy) and for Israeli covert disruption operations to be intensified.
The key Israeli consideration is likely to be the narrowing window of opportunity for a strike before uranium enrichment processes are transferred to hardened underground facilities, where they will be invulnerable to air strike.
WHO WILL BE GIVING THE WEB BRIEFING
Iran expert and Head of Middle East and North Africa Forecasting Team Zaineb Al-Assam and Senior Violent Risk Forecaster and military expert John Cochrane will brief on the risks of a conflict in the year ahead, the key indicators of change, the escalation pathways of conflict scenarios and their commercial impacts.
REGISTRATION
To register for the briefing session at 0900 GMT, paste this link into your web browser: https://exclusiveanalysis.webex.com/exclusiveanalysis/onstage/g.php?t=a&d=950761591
To register for the briefing session at 1530 GMT, paste this link into your web browser: https://exclusiveanalysis.webex.com/exclusiveanalysis/onstage/g.php?t=a&d=954361716
You can also register by contacting Amanda Russo at the details provided at the end of the release.
THE BRIEFING OUTLINE
The briefing will include commercially-focused assessments of:
*Probabilities of unilateral Israeli military action, US/Israeli joint military action and solitary US action against Iran, and the timeframes and key risk indicators for potential changes in probabilities.
*Commercial consequences of hostilities in the region & the potential for closure or disruption to marine cargo in the Straits of Hormuz.
*Escalation pathways for various Israeli and US strike scenarios on Iran and Iranian retaliation.
*The political risk outlook in Iran and its impact on the progress of Iran's nuclear enrichment programme.
*Potential for retaliation by Iran against other Arab states perceived to be complicit in any strikes.
