In Case You Missed the World T20 Score Forecasts by Prasant Nair

Jamshedpur, March 14, 2016 (Newswire.com) - Jamshedpur- For the practice match, India Vs South Africa, Prasant Nair had predicted a score around 191 runs. Score Tip, in advance, is the most sought after thing by the team management, captain. Knowing the correct score projections are vital for adjusting their batting, bowling tactics in the remaining overs. In fact most of the score estimates provided by him to Red FM, Nagpur has been turning nearly correct. In case you have missed the score forecasts provided by Prasant Nair, here is the overall report card. And yes, the man himself explains the easy method.

The Google site ‘world t20 score info’, as well as the sms verification by RJ Sourabh, and RJ Priyanka suggest that this man had predicted Afghanistan to score 182, and win yesterday. The match was crucial, with that win team Afghanistan enters Super 10 group which is remarkable achievement for this new, enthusiastic and talented team. And Holland’ was to score 122. The complete list of world t20 estimates, till recent match read like this:

World T20 Score

Estimates          Actual
147                     158
170                     170
152                     153
147                     154
158                     147
129                     116
 182                    186
122                     127
191                     196
 67                        59
160                     180

This lone ranger, from the steel city Jamshedpur has achieved all these without much support from media, social sites etc. He faced rejections from Wisden magazine, Professor Tim Swartz from Simon Fraser University, stats editor S Rajesh of espncricinfo site, Steve Stern, one of the makers behind the DLS rain method.

‘they are looking at cricket from stats angle. But, cricket and cricket data is more correct from ‘mathematics’ angle’ points out Nair. ‘Cricket scores are integers, the data is ‘modular’. Hence, I attempt the vector L1 norm, and congruence class function to forecast the score’ he added.

In Dec 2015, his proposed method to rectify the Duckworth Lewis calculation was published in the research journal, IJIREST and added to the SSRN e library, America. His other research works are under the process.

Of course, you would now like to know score method. The man himself, explains it ‘you just watch out for the runs scored and balls faced details of the batsman getting out, first wicket, second, and third.’ ‘ And you add the runs, balls figures for that batsman. And finally, deduct/add to 90n i.e. multiples of 90.’

In yesterday’s popular prediction, the calculation was like this. The strike rate was high, runs were nearly equal or higher than the balls faced for Amla, Faf and others. It is expected that score would be high, the data need to be added to 180. Hashim Amla, the first wicket, got out making 5 runs in 6 balls. His data add to 11. Now, we add it to 180, this gives us 191 runs. Second batsman, Faf Du Plessis, made 12 in 7 which add to 19. This is also creating 199 runs. And the actual score was 196 runs.

For the Hong Kong match, the batsman data add to 32, the strike rate is low, we add it to 90 runs, which gives total 122 runs estimate. Actual score came 127 runs. The tale of success doesn’t begin from here, it dates back to recently finished Asia Cup 2016 in which most of the predictions were bang on, including 120 runs for the finale match.      

Asia cup score

Estimates    Actual
159                176
167                180
176                165
154                178
155                146
169                172
161                166
125                129
125                133
118                 83
139                147
105                129
146                138
108                129
 86                  81
163                150
120                120

So, is that you inefficiency that many times, the estimated scores are at a gap of 10-20 from the actual score? ‘No,’ explains Nair, ‘in case the actual score is falling short, it is indicative that they haven’t put up the correct score which their initial batsman had managed to generate. The chasing team can win sometimes in such cases.’

‘And when the actual score is greater that the estimated score, first batting team has greater chance of winning.’

Prasant Nair is a former M.COM student of Jamshedpur Co-operative College. He had taken hons in Accounting and maths, excelled with 80 percent in mathematics in I.COM, B.COM too. 20 years back, he had appeared for Physics Olympiad held at Jamshedpur Public School.