Prediction Market Research Shows Rebrovick a Top Contender for Mayor

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE, August 3, 2015 (Newswire.com) - ​Mayoral candidate Linda Eskind Rebrovick has released results from prediction market research that shows she has a 69 percent chance of being elected mayor.  

Unlike traditional surveys that ask consumers for their personal preferences and intentions – such as “Who do you plan to vote for in the mayoral election?” – prediction markets ask, “Who will be the next mayor?”

"Polls don't always tell the whole story because the same "weight" is applied to each voter's answer and they often don't report undecided voters," said Brad Marsh, CEO of Consensus Point, the company that conducted the prediction market survey research. "With prediction market research participants can express their confidence in outcomes, and in this market for the mayor's race, a large segment of undecided voters gave three candidates a strong and nearly equal chance to make the runoff."

Matt Griffin, Communications Director

“Polls don’t always tell the whole story because the same “weight” is applied to each voter’s answer and they often don’t report undecided voters,” said Brad Marsh, CEO of Consensus Point, the company that conducted the prediction market survey research. “With prediction market research participants can express their confidence in outcomes, and in this market for the mayor’s race, a large segment of undecided voters gave three candidates a strong and nearly equal chance to make the runoff.”

​According to the Consensus Point prediction market, which was conducted from July 16 to 23, Bill Freeman has a 76 percent chance of being elected, Megan Barry has a 72 percent chance, and Linda Eskind Rebrovick has a 69 percent chance. These three candidates’ chances of winning are significantly higher than the four other candidates’ odds.
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​A score of 75 percent or higher means that an outcome has a very high likelihood of happening, according to Consensus Point. Scores between 60 and 74 percent indicate a directional preference in the likelihood, but not strong enough to further approach certainty. And scores in the 40 to 60 percent range essentially represent an outcome that could be determined by a coin flip.

“Although it’s not an apple-to-apple comparison with traditional polling, prediction markets have historically outperformed traditional polls 75 percent of the time,” said Marsh. “Prediction markets have been used in political races for more than 20 years, so this is a proven approach.”

​In 2012, The Tennessean’s prediction market, the Ticker, in partnership with Consensus Point, outperformed Gallup’s poll in accurately predicting the outcome of the Presidential election. On Nov. 5, the Ticker predicted President Obama had a 70 percent chance to win and Romney had a 40 percent chance to win. On the same day, Gallup’s poll had the race at a virtual tie, with Romney slightly ahead. ​
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​Rebrovick was the CEO of Consensus Point when it partnered with The Tennessean in 2012, and has seen prediction markets outperform traditional polls on many occasions.

“Prediction markets outperform traditional polls 75 percent of the time, and it’s a different and useful way of assessing potential outcomes,” said Rebrovick. “I’m encouraged that the research shows that I’m gaining significant ground with undecided voters.”

About Consensus Point
Consensus Point is based in Nashville, Tennessee, and is a leading provider of prediction market research technology nationwide. Linda Eskind Rebrovick is a member of the board of directors of the company.

About Prediction Markets
International Journal of Forecasting, Prediction Market Accuracy in the Long Run, Joyce E. Berg, Forrest D. Nelson and Thomas A. Rietz;  http://onlineathens.com/opinion/2014-12-02/bets-better-polls-predicting-election-outcomes. 

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