Final Popular Vote Projected To Be 49.3% To 49.2% For Obama

Recent polling from MPO Research Group find that Obama voters are younger and more diverse, female and educated.

Media and Public Opinion (MPO) Research Group recent survey finds that Obama is preferred president, but only slightly and well within the survey's margin of error. The results, after splitting the undecided vote, predict an extremely close race, with 49.3% of Obama, 49.2% for Romney and 1.5% for other candidates in the final tally.


Among education cohorts, the most educated group (those with a post-graduate degree) are the most supportive of President Obama (55.9%). The greatest amount of support for Romney came from respondents with a community college education (51.2%). Voters with a high school education or an undergraduate university degree show the closest split in opinion. Of voters with a high school education, 49.7% support Obama and 46.8% support Romney. Of those with a bachelor's degree, 45.8% support Obama and 48.3% support Romney.


When broken down by age group, the strongest support for President Obama comes from the youngest voters, while the strongest support for Governor Romney comes from some of the oldest, as shown in the table below:

18-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+
Obama 69.1% 50.9% 48.8% 45.4% 44.9% 45.6%
Romney 19.1% 42.6% 45.7% 51.2% 50.7% 47.8%


Strong differences are also found among ethnic groups. Obama is strongly preferred by all non-white ethnicities (67.3% of non-Caucasians hope the president wins a second term), while Romney is preferred by Caucasians (55.3% Romney vs. 40.1% Obama).


Women are also more likely to support the president than men. 49.7% of women hope the president wins a second term (44.4% support Romney), while 50.7% of men hope for a Romney victory (44.3% support Obama).

Surveys are conducted by MPO from a national panel of over 5,000 randomly selected individuals in the United States, accurately reflecting all backgrounds in terms of age, education, ethnicity, gender and political affiliation. MPO is a self-funded, independent and non-partisan research and news organization.
News stories from its monthly research surveys can be found on

The results for this story are based on a telephone survey of 558 randomly selected respondents conducted during October 1-26, 2012, with a margin of error of 4.15% and at a 95% confidence level.

For Media inquiries, please email or call +1 202 621 0212.
For more information on MPO Research Group, please visit